On February 24, 2022, under the order of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Russian army launched a special military operation against Ukraine. At present, many major military facilities in Ukraine have been destroyed.
The Russian military action has greatly stimulated the nerves of NATO countries, making NATO member states led by the United States and European countries announce sanctions against Russia one after another. Among them, the sanctions announced by the US Department of Commerce included "preventing Russia from acquiring a series of us technologies, including semiconductors".
The United States will sanction the Russian semiconductor industry with "Huawei model".
The sanctions against Huawei in 2019 are a replica of the "US chip sanctions" model. The U.S. Department of Commerce has drawn up a list of entities, including a series of U.S. scientific and technological products, or products manufactured using U.S. equipment, software and technology. According to the US Department of Commerce, the EU and other G7 countries will implement the same embargo against Russia.
Analysts pointed out that the "technology outage" carried out by the United States on Huawei since 2019 has caused Huawei to lose billions of dollars in revenue and can no longer use self-developed Kirin chips on the product side. Whether in terms of economy or technology, the sanctions imposed by the United States have hit Huawei's business. What impact will this experience of sanctions imposed by the United States on Huawei have on Russia's future development in the semiconductor industry?
Iron fist hammer on Cotton: US technical sanctions against Russia may fail
According to Reuters, China's chip imports in 2020 have been close to 380 billion US dollars, accounting for 18% of China's total imports that year, making it the world's largest chip market. According to the semiconductor industry association, Russia accounts for less than 0.1% of global chip procurement. SIA CEO John Neuffer believes that Russia is not an important consumer of the semiconductor industry. According to IDC, a research firm, Russia's overall spending on science and technology is about $50 billion, while the global market is about $4-5 trillion.
Professor Bhaskar chakravorti said that since Russia does not have such a huge electronic consumer market as China, the US science and technology sanctions against Russia may be difficult to achieve the same results as the sanctions against China in 2019. Moreover, the current wave of core shortage is making chips in short supply all over the world. If the United States really strictly implements the sanctions and pulls the chip companies violating the embargo into the blacklist of the U.S. supply chain, the result will be to further block their domestic chip supply. For the United States, expanding the core shortage problem is obviously not in its national interest.
Therefore, Professor Bhaskar chakravorti believes that the United States will not strictly enforce the ban, and many semiconductor manufacturers will not seriously abide by the ban of the U.S. Department of Commerce. Moreover, he also believes that at a time when China's chip industry is seeking more advanced technology, the US sanctions on Russian chips may make China and Russia more closely linked at the technical level.
In the face of EU and G7 sanctions, Russia's response is very tough. When announcing sanctions on Russia's semiconductor industry, US President Biden said that the sanctions measures taken by the United States and its allies would limit half of Russia's high-tech product imports and seriously affect "the possibility of modernization of Russia's military industry".
But then Dmitri, President of Rosneft Rogozin responded on social media: "the United States has imposed sanctions on Russia's entry into the field of space radiation resistant microelectronics as early as 2014, but as you can see, we have been manufacturing our space equipment. This will continue in the future."
At the same time, Rogozin also stressed that if the United States refuses to cooperate with Russia in the aerospace field, the international space station currently in operation will be out of orbit without control, and the 500 ton giant may eventually fall into the United States or Europe.
Obviously, Russia's irreplaceable technology accumulation and tough attitude in the aerospace field have shaken the firm attitude of the United States on sanctions in this field. According to the Russian micro news agency, a spokesman for NASA has responded to Rogozin's remarks. The spokesman said: "we will continue to cooperate with international partners including Russian National Space Company to ensure the safe operation of the international space station."
The United States, which cannot leave Russia in space technology, softened three points before the sanctions on semiconductor technology came into effect.
"Bear" and "rabbit" keep warm together: China and Russia may become "brothers in need" in the face of sanctions
Although in the long run, Russia does not want to rely so much on China, in the short term, China's semiconductor industry will be the best solution Russia can choose in the face of the upcoming chip embargo.
China's semiconductor industry is developing rapidly. Take SMIC as an example: according to the financial report of SMIC in the fourth quarter of 2021, the company's international sales in the fourth quarter were US $1.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. The annual sales reached US $5.4 billion, a record high. Under such development prospects, China is the most promising partner to solve the chip "cold winter" problem for Russia in the future.
The Asia Times yesterday wrote an article predicting the possible future cooperation between China and Russia in the field of science and technology. The article pointed out: "one of Huawei's largest research centers is located in Moscow. The company plans to train 50000 technical experts in five research centers in Russia." In addition, the article also lists a set of data: in 2015, there were about 445000 engineering university graduates in Russia, while there were only 238000 American universities. Russia currently has 215000 engineers in the electrical industry, compared with 188000 in the United States.
This data shows that Russia has strong technological potential. Russia's technological potential has been applied to scientific research, and the powerful forces that erupted have been clearly proved in the Soviet era. Now, China's semiconductor industry, which is developing rapidly and constantly improving, has encountered Russia, which has no choice under Western sanctions, and it can be described as two-way rush.
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